Methodology
TamLens sizes a local market with three numbers, not one. Every report shows its formulas and inputs - the point is a number you can defend, not a number that impresses.
TAM - total addressable market
Everyone in the city who could plausibly need the service this year. Census ACS population and age bands × the vertical's annual treatment-start rate × average case value.
SAM - search-serviceable market
The slice of demand that expresses itself through online search - the only demand a ranked site can intercept. Geo-targeted monthly search volume × 12 × lead relevance × searcher-to-customer conversion × case value.
SOM - obtainable share
What one site holding a #2–3 map/organic position realistically captures: click share × site conversion × close rate × case value. This is the number that justifies the rent.
Supply overlay
Licensed providers from the federal provider registry (refreshed daily, organizations vs individuals counted separately) against national per-capita benchmarks, plus how many businesses the TAM can support at average competitor revenue. Undersupplied + high demand = enter.
Data sources
- U.S. Census - population, age bands, income
- Federal provider registry - licensed providers by specialty and city
- Live search data - search volume, competition, CPC
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey - how spending on each service category varies with household income
- Published funnel benchmarks - organic click share by position (First Page Sage, 2026), search conversion rates by industry (WordStream/LocaliQ, 2026), lead close rates by industry (First Page Sage, 2026; HubSpot, 2024)
What is measured, and what is policy
Most numbers in a report are measured or sourced: business density per 100k is measured from live listings across six metros, revenue per business and market size come from the Economic Census, spending curves come from the Consumer Expenditure Survey, and the funnel rates carry the citations above. A few numbers are policy - choices we made and stand behind, not measurements - and we would rather name them than dress them up:
- The score's shape: supply gap and search demand are worth 35 points each and headroom 30; a market 2× under the density benchmark earns full supply points; 12 monthly searches per 1,000 residents earns full demand points.
- The verdict cutoffs: 70+ is a strong entry, 50-70 viable, 35-50 marginal, under 35 avoid.
- Justified rent at 5-10% of delivered revenue - the rank-and-rent pricing convention, not a market rate we measured.
- Search-intent weighting: transactional searches count fully toward reachable demand, commercial ones at 0.8, navigational and informational at 0.3 and 0.2.
Honest caveats: TAM outputs are estimates stacked on estimates, and Keyword Planner volumes are bucketed averages. Treat search numbers as directional. Every report flags sample data explicitly.